The hottest spring peak season is approaching, and

2022-09-22
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The peak season of construction machinery starts in spring is approaching, and the leading stocks of construction machinery are favored.

the traditional peak season of construction starts is approaching. In 2020, some special bonds were issued in advance, the capital ratio of superimposed fixed asset investment projects was reduced, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment could rebound. Market participants believe that the demand of the construction machinery industry will further expand, and the sector is expected to obtain excess returns in the post holiday spring market

the boom of the industry is high

according to the data of excavator branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in China in 2019 was 235693, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Driven by factors such as counter cyclical adjustment, infrastructure weakness support and the demand for updating stock equipment, the market performance exceeded expectations

breakdown data shows that the average monthly sales volume of excavators in China in 2019 exceeded the average sales volume of the previous decade; Except for February and may, the sales volume in other months exceeded the maximum of the previous ten years. Specifically, the excavator market was booming in the first quarter of 2019, with a substantial year-on-year growth. The growth rate of sales slowed down in the second quarter, and there was even a negative growth year-on-year in May. However, from the third quarter, the growth rate of sales gradually picked up, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter was like going through a time-space tunnel; The integrated design of the central control panel and the central channel reached a new high, and the sales growth rate in November and December returned to the growth track of more than 20%

according to the research of Dongguan securities industry, since the recovery at the end of 2016, the boom of excavator market has continued to rise, and three years have been achieved. After thinking about it, we will find that the annual continuous rapid growth. Although the centralized upgrading of stock equipment is coming to an end, the demand for real estate, infrastructure and the export of the "the Belt and Road" has vigorously promoted the structural optimization and upgrading, and the national four standards for excavators are about to be issued, and the environmental protection policy is becoming more stringent, The construction of superimposed beautiful villages is in full swing, and the economy of "machine replacement" appears. The sales volume of excavators will remain high in 2020, but the growth rate may slow down. The excavator market will gradually enter the stage of stable development from the stage of high-speed growth

according to the research of industrial securities, the production scheduling of downstream core component manufacturers has been at a high level in recent months, and the workshops are still at full capacity. The excavator sales data in the first quarter is probably red

industry leaders are concerned

after the "reshuffle" of the industry downturn, the market concentration of the construction machinery industry has further improved. It is generally expected that the market share of leading enterprises will further expand in the future with the improvement of the technical level of domestic enterprises, the further highlighting of the cost-effective advantages of products and the improvement of the service system

"compared with the previous round of industry cycle, the demand structure has been more diversified since this round of industry recovery, among which the demand for equipment renewal is the biggest highlight. On the one hand, a large number of equipment need to be updated when their service lives expire; on the other hand, environmental protection policies are becoming stricter, and local governments have issued policies to limit the scope of use of high emission non road mobile machinery, promote the phasing out of relevant equipment in the whole industry, and prolong the business cycle of the industry." Han weiqi, an analyst in the construction machinery industry of Debang securities, said that this round of industrial recovery is significantly different from the industrial expansion under the strong stimulus of the previous round. In this round of recovery, the revenue and net profit of leading enterprises continue to improve. We will always adhere to our theme, and the cash flow situation has reached the best level in history. At the same time, against the growth path of overseas giants, after years of overseas layout of domestic "leaders", with the help of the national strategy of the "the Belt and Road", overseas revenue has become an important part of revenue

Dongguan securities research predicts that the excavator market will remain prosperous and high in 2020, and post cycle products such as cranes and concrete machinery are expected to usher in the peak of recovery, and aerial work platforms will maintain high growth. It is suggested to pay attention to leading enterprises in various sub sectors

Huabao Securities believes that the counter cyclical adjustment in 2020 is expected to bring stable growth expectations to the industry. The investment opportunities in the construction machinery sector in 2020 are generally medium and short-term opportunities, and the investment value of enterprises that benefit from the enhanced head effect is more significant

(source: China Securities Journal)

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