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[PVC weekly review] the high quotation was firm and the rise was slightly weak

I. this week's market (from February 18 to February 22)

the overall trend of PVC warehouse receipts this week fluctuated and rose slightly. Affected by the long holiday, the transaction was light at the beginning of the week and improved slightly in the next few days. As of Friday's close, the China Plastics warehouse receipt index closed at 1281.07, up 7.83 points from the previous trading week

on Monday, the warehouse receipt fell slightly, the end of the finger bolt in the session should slightly protrude from the number of nuts, which was stable in the early stage, and fell steadily in the middle and rear session; On Tuesday, the warehouse receipts were in an upward trend as a whole. The intraday index was stable in the early stage, and fluctuated upward in the middle and late stages. The rise was slowly amplified. The stable closing was similar to the characteristics of rubber products - the product surface haze was excellent; On Wednesday, the warehouse receipts continued to rise, and the intraday index fell back slightly after rising in a concussion, closing steadily; On Thursday, the warehouse receipt opened higher and went lower. The intraday index was stable in the early stage, and then fell back after the straight-line rise in the mid and late session. It fell in shock and the decline was slowly amplified; On Friday, the intraday index was stable in the early stage, straight up in the middle and late stage, then fell back, and rose again in the late stage

in terms of data, as of Friday's closing, the PVC warehouse receipt index closed at 1274.43 points, down 0.56 points compared with the previous trading week. The settlement price of main warehouse receipts rose or fell slightly compared with the same period last week, and the trading volume fell by 40 tons compared with last week

the specific data of one week are as follows:

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

pvc warehouse receipt total trading volume (ton)

pvc warehouse receipt order quantity (batch)

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this Friday

last weekend







.↓ 40



↑ 1




↓ 45




↑ 11

comprehensive analysis:

on the K-line chart around the index, PVC warehouse receipts closed at the small positive line this week, and all moving averages rose slowly. On the daily K-line chart, four Yin and one Yang are collected, all moving averages are rising steadily, the opening of the brin line is slowly enlarged, the KDJ index is significantly increased this week, the working principle of the abrasion resistance tester is rising, and the green column of the MACD index is slowly reduced

in terms of international crude oil, driven by the fund, New York crude oil futures rebounded to more than US $100 per barrel and continued to hit a record high for two trading days. At the same time, due to the failure of American refineries and seasonal maintenance, product oil futures once set a new record. The dispute between Venezuela and ExxonMobil continues to support the market. The situation in Nigeria is more tense. OPEC tends not to increase production at the meeting on March 5. Many factors push up oil prices. However, the climate in the northern hemisphere has warmed up, and the demand will decline seasonally. The U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The fundamentals do not support the oil price to remain above the 3-digit level. After the New York crude oil futures exchange, the price fell from $100 per barrel. At the close of trading on Friday, WTI was at $98.81/barrel, up $3.31 from last Friday; Brent was at $97.01 per barrel, up $2.38 from last Friday. In terms of spot goods: this week is the second trading week after the Spring Festival. With the end of the long holiday, most of the manufacturers have been put into production. The market transaction has gradually warmed up, the demand has gradually recovered, and the quotation is strong. After the sharp rise in the market over the weekend, the market price has continued to rise this week due to inertia, but the increase has become very slow. As of Wednesday, the market began to enter a stalemate stage. Some market participants began to worry about the future market with the increasingly obvious trend of using biodegradable plastics to produce food packaging. At the same time, the decline in the price of ethylene raw materials in Asia will also have a certain impact on the future PVC market price, but it should also be noted that, All kinds of positive factors will continue to exist, and it is expected that there is a great possibility of consolidation in the later period

in general: affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, the PVC market was obviously light, and the trading volume was significantly reduced compared with the market before the year. This week, the market seems to be gradually warming up due to the gradual return of traders. At the same time, the crude oil price breaking through the $100 mark is a new opportunity for the PVC market. The weather is getting warmer gradually. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories will start construction one after another, and the demand will increase significantly. It is expected that the high price of PVC warehouse receipts will be stable in the short term, and the consolidation will be upward

(personal view, for reference only; enter the market on this basis, at your own risk)

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