Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

2022-10-18
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange on March 2

the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange reported that polypropylene and linear varieties fell as a whole today. The settlement prices of pp0905 and ll0905 were 7421 yuan/ton and 8099 yuan/ton respectively, down 77 yuan/ton and 201 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 1429 batches (7145 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 55 batches compared with the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 2139 batches (10695 tons), an increase of 96 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex4 crude oil futures fell by $0.46 to $44.76 overnight. As of 15:00 on March 2, Beijing time, April crude oil futures fell by $0.98 to $43.63. Ethylene monomer: FOB South Korea reported $595.0/ton, down $40, FOB Japan reported $595.0/ton, down $40. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported US $641.0/ton, FOB Japan reported US $639.0/ton

polypropylene varieties:

main pp0905 7450 small today, it's best to check whether the initial injection molding parts are polluted by the initial injection molding materials. It's earlier, more reliable, more stable, and more cost-effective. The market fluctuated under yesterday's settlement price, with the highest touch of 7480; In the afternoon, it fluctuated downward, dropping as low as 7340 and finally closing at 7350

Fundamentals:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP was flat (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP was up 11 US dollars (US dollar/ton)

(2) domestic market: today, the price of PP market around Yanshan fluctuated slightly, with a small range, and the middleman's mentality was stable. Due to the lack of local resources, businesses believe that short-term prices will not be too risky. However, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. CNPC T30S reported a transaction of 7700 yuan/ton. There are few PP market resources around Tianjin, and the market quotation is stable, but the transaction is general. The middleman said that the actual goods can be discussed, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, T30S self delivery price is reported at about yuan/ton in the market

(3) manufacturer dynamics/device dynamics: the price of PP Homopolymer of Daqing Refining and chemical company and Fushun Petrochemical Company increased by 100 yuan/ton. Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 produces EPC30R-H and line 2 produces n-t30s

technical aspects (polypropylene continuous):

(1) price situation: the intermediate trend of shock recovery, which is in periodic adjustment in the short term; It closed slightly lower today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out a negative line with long shadow. Both quantities have increased

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the 5-day moving average began to decline, and the closing price fell below the 10 day moving average; On the 60 minute online, the closing price fell below the 5-day moving average again. Reference pressure 7650, 7500, support 7200, 7000

(4) if it's bad, what's the difference? Index: MACD (26,12,9) is flat above the zero axis on the daily line, and above the zero axis on the 60 minute line is in a dead cross shape; KD index middle area express line is leveled; The 60 minute online KD index express entered the oversold area

brief analysis and suggestions:

today, jubing warehouse receipts opened low, closed slightly lower, and the closing price fell below the 10 day moving average again. Basically, the quotation has not changed much, the transaction has not improved significantly, and the merchants' intention to feed is not particularly strong, but there are not many sources of goods in the surrounding markets, which plays a supporting role in the market. Technically, it is short, and it is expected that jubing warehouse orders will fluctuate downward in the short term. It is suggested that empty orders in the early stage should continue to be held

linear varieties:

today's main 0905 opened slightly higher and fell in shock. The opening price is 8250 yuan, the maximum is 8280 yuan, and the closing price is 8050 yuan

Fundamentals:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE reported flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FOB Middle East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: the quotation of last Friday was temporarily maintained in the markets around Yanshan, and most merchants were waiting for the follow-up price policy of petrochemical, with 7042 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer dynamics/device dynamics: the manufacturer's quotation is basically stable, with Daqing Petrochemical 7042 and Jilin Petrochemical 7042 rising 50 respectively to 8810 yuan/ton. Qilu Petrochemical linear production 7042

technical aspect (linear continuous):

(1) price trend: rising trend in the medium term; After a short-term consolidation, it fell slightly today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out the negative line with slight shadow. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the order volume increased

(3) moving average system (5,10,20). Support pressure: on the daily line, close below the moving average system. On the 60 minute line, the moving average system is short lined. Reference pressure 8640, 8800, lower support 8000, 7800

(4) index: on the daily line, MACD index short position shape; Low KD index shows signs of low adhesion. On the 60 minute line, the MACD index crosses near the zero axis; KD index is descending to around 20

brief analysis and suggestions:

today's linear warehouse receipts fell violently, with 8000 important support points to be tested. In the North China market, the market quotation fell, and the inquiry was light. Many merchants waited and waited for the follow-up price policy of petrochemicals. On the whole, linear warehouse receipts may continue to suffer from weak shocks in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see or short-term trading. (personal view, for reference only)

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