Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 25

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene varieties rose and fell, and linear varieties fell in a narrow range. The settlement prices of pp0904 and ll0904 were 6295 and 7318 yuan/ton respectively, up 28 and -17 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 1520 batches (7600 tons) were traded throughout the day, 229 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 2984 batches (14920 tons), an increase of 47 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex2 crude oil futures closed down $3.63 at $35.35 a barrel overnight due to the freezing of chain segment movement. The market was closed today. Ethylene monomer: FOB Korea reported $535.0/ton, FOB Japan reported $535.0/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported US $461.0/ton, FOB Japan reported US $459.0/ton

polypropylene varieties:

the main pp0904 opened significantly lower in the morning at the lowest price of 6200 that day, fluctuated upward, and fell back when it was blocked up to 6330; In the afternoon, the opening price continued to decline. After a small diving in the middle, it was strongly supported, and the end price was pulled back to 6305 again

news side:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP fell by $10/ton (USD/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP fell by $10/ton (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP fell by $10/ton (euro/ton), Fas Houston homopolymer PP and nano clay (USD/ton) fell by $10/ton

(2) domestic market: the quotation of PP market around Yanshan continues to fall. Study how to further protect fair competition in the market. Due to the continuous decline of crude oil prices, middlemen have a poor mentality and lack confidence in the future market. There were few quotations in the PP market in Tianjin this morning. Some middlemen and downstream enterprises are busy with year-end settlement, and some downstream enterprises have decided to have a full month holiday in January, which has a certain impact on demand. In early trading, EPS30R has a business intention of about 7100 yuan/ton, wire drawing is slightly lower, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 is converted to EPC30R-H, line 2 is converted to n-t30s, and the latest price of T30S and n-t30s is 7450 yuan/ton. Today, PetroChina Huadong PP is sold at a fixed price, and the ex warehouse price is generally reduced by 150 yuan/ton. At present, T30S is at 7200 yuan/ton. Shaoxing Sanyuan PP plant produces T30S and f280f. At present, T30S is priced at 7100 yuan/ton. TIANLIAN PP is still under maintenance and is ready to start construction in March next year. At present, T30S is 7300 yuan/ton

technical aspects (polypropylene and propylene link 2):

(1) price situation: the medium-term trend of volatile decline, which is in the bottoming market in the short term; Open low and close high today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out the barefoot male line with a slight shadow line. The trading volume decreased and the order volume increased slightly

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, there is short-term pressure near the 5-day moving average; On the 60 minute line, the 5-unit moving average crosses the 10 unit moving average to form a golden fork. Reference pressure 6400, 6550, support 6200, 6120, 6000

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) tends to bond below the zero axis, and a golden cross occurs below the zero axis on the 60 minute line; KD (9,3,3) express entered the oversold area, and the 60 minute online continued to rise in the middle area

brief analysis and suggestions:

the oil futures hit a new low overnight, which depressed market sentiment. The approaching new year's close made demand more light, and the manufacturer's quotation was looser than the day before yesterday, but on the whole, it is still supported by tight resources, and there is little possibility of a sharp decline. Jubing warehouse receipt was supported by yesterday's low today, and the intraday trading was volatile. The future market is expected to continue to be sideways, waiting for guidance

linear varieties:

today, the main 0904 opened at 7300, and in the morning, it was sawed and vibrated, with a maximum of 7400; In the afternoon, the air force fluctuated downward, rebounded slightly in late trading, and finally closed at 7330

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE reported up $10/ton (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE reported up $12/ton (USD/ton), and FOB Middle East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: the price of domestic petrochemical is relatively strong, and the quotation of imported goods sources is lower. Today, the quotation in Tianjin market is relatively chaotic. After selling inventory in the early stage, some merchants offer high prices for domestic materials, but there is no deal. It is rumored that Sinopec will sell at a fixed price at the end of the month. Today, most businesses around Yanshan wait and see the pricing situation, and the quotation is not much

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: CNPC northeast linear drop of 300. The old high-pressure production of Maoming Petrochemical plant, the new high-pressure production of 2426h, the full density production of 7042, and the high-density production of tr144. Yangzi Petrochemical linear unit produces 7042, low-voltage unit line a produces 5000S, line B produces 5000S, and line C produces 4803t

technical aspect (linear second)

(1) price trend: the medium-term trend of volatile decline, short-term rise and fall, and closed up slightly today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out a male line with long shadow. The trading volume is slightly enlarged, and the order volume has increased. 6. Safety protection device: overload protection, shutdown and acceleration

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the 5-day and 10 day moving average are in a dead cross shape. On the 60 minute line, the moving average system maintained a short position and closed at the 5-day moving average. Reference pressure 7950, 7500, lower support 7200, 7100

(4) index: on the daily line, the MACD index goes flat below the zero axis; KD index continued to decline in the middle region. On the 60 minute line, MACD index is empty; The KD index is upward in the middle region

brief analysis and suggestions:

crude oil fell sharply. Today, LLDPE warehouse orders opened high and then settled in shock, ending the unilateral downward trend and closing up slightly. In the spot market, the quotation fell and the popularity was weak. The domestic petrochemical pricing at the end of the month still supported the market price, but traders reported that most downstream factories had holidays in advance, and the future demand continued to shrink. At present, the price is still difficult to stick to. I suggest you to continue to hold empty orders in the early stage. (personal view, for reference only)

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